EDUC 8848: Emerging and Future Technology

Red Queens and Increasing Returns: DVDs versus VOD

When I chose to view the movie “Minority Report” based on Philip K. Dick’s book, I rented the DVD from the local movie rental shop. I did so because I personally don’t have a subscription to any video-on-demand (VOD) so it was cheaper to just rent the DVD. Actually Comcast does have VOD but they did not have “Minority Report” available at the time I needed to view it.

At the moment, I believe the competition between DVDs versus VOD is a form of a Red Queen. VOD has not successfully blown DVDs out of the water. There are still DVD rental stores, RedBox, and the like available to rent DVDs. If VOD was an Increasing Return, it would have obliterated DVDs by now. Instead, the competition between the two continues. There used to be a lag time between when a movie was released on DVD and when it was released on VOD. That time frame has collapsed to just 5 days (Lawler, 2010) making the difference negligible. However, what is not negligible is the cost. A DVD can be rented for as little as $1 per day (for new releases) whereas a VOD subscription can vary in price from $4.99-$5.99 (Lawler, 2010) and online monthly subscription carry a different pricing level. In times of economic hardship, people have less expendable cash and don’t necessarily want to be locked into a commitment of a rental contract or VOD contract. I rented my copy of “Minority Report” for 7 days for a whopping 99 cents. DVDs and VOD have had a back and forth competition for the past few years, leaving behind VHS and other movie rental formats. According to Thornburg (2009b), when two in competition become the leaders and driving forces in the arena, driving all other competition out, we have a Red Queen. I believe this is what we have with DVDs and VOD; neither is winning but they are it.

I believe these Red Queens will not evolve into one becoming an Increasing Returns winner. Instead, I believe they are in McLuhan’s quadrant of “Reverses” in his tetrad. The Red Queens will soon be replaced by Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray has better resolution and higher quality than DVDs or VOD (Brandon, 2011) and more importantly has 3-D capability. As technology becomes more advanced and people’s expectations and desires for better media rise, the likelihood of a “suboptimal technology becoming dominate” (Thornburg, 2009a) is less likely to occur. Is it a guarantee that Blu-Ray will replace VOD? No. With the increase in bandwidth and other improvements to VOD, it is very possible that in the future VOD could rise up and overtake Blu-Ray (Brandon, 2011). Until then, when I am able to carve a little time out to watch a movie, I will just rent my DVD.

References

Brandon, J. (2011). Video format war: Blu-ray vs. streaming. PCWorld. Retrieved February 9, 2012, from http://www.pcworld.com/article/241215/video_format_war_bluray_vs_streaming.html

Curtis, B., Goldman, G., Molen, G., & de Bont, J. (Producers), & Spielberg, S. (Director). (2002). Minority report [Motion picture]. USA: Dreamworks Pictures.

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009a). Increasing returns featuring Dr. David Thornburg. United States: Walden University. Podcasts retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6200933&Survey=1&47=4862829&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009b). Red queens featuring Dr. David Thornburg. United States: Walden University. Podcasts retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6200933&Survey=1&47=4862829&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Lawler, R. (2010), Studios giving up on DVD, Pushing VOD instead. Retrieved February 9, 2012, from http://gigaom.com/video/studios-giving-up-on-dvd-pushing-vod-instead/

EDUC 8848: Emerging and Future Technology

    
Disruptive Power of Second Life

Second Life can be considered a disruptive technology as it has and will continue to change how people interact with one another. Just like any technology, some people will be greatly affected, some tertiarily affected, and some not affected at all. It is a technology that is here, is being utilized by many, and cannot be removed from human experience. It may change and develop as time goes on but the notion or idea of people living and working a virtual world is here to stay.

Thornburg (2009) stated that a disruptive technology is a technology that seems to come from out of nowhere. It can do something better or faster than the technology that it is replacing. It can be a complete accident or happenstance. Rosedale (2008) on Second Life, sees it as a disruptive technology in the way that it has changed how humans, social creatures at heart, interact with one another on a different level. Second Life has displaced chat rooms. Although chat rooms still exist, Second Life has added a dimension to chatting with others online that is appealing to many people. People get to represent themselves in whatever manner they wish. This “choice” is very powerful. It allows the shy to be bold; the common person to be a superhero; the chance to be anything or anyone a person wants to be.

That said, Essid (2011) who did his “PhD work was in the history of technological systems and public enthusiasm for them”, suggests that Second Life has not lived up to its hype as a disruptive technology. He claims Second Life had a good run but failed on interoperability and commerce. Essid stated that Second Life limited itself and therefore is not a sustaining disruptive technology. He postulates that ideas such as 3-D web and OpenSims are more likely to be disruptive technologies, claiming that these innovations will change how real interactions occur.

There are social benefits to Second Life being utilized in the classroom. I see Second Life as on method for teaching elementary students about manners, interacting with one another, bullying, etc. It could be used to illustrate in a demonstrable method ethical, moral, civil, and polite ways to interact with the peers, families, and adults in a non-threatening arena. I can see this as a wonderful way to reinforce our school’s mantra, “Be safe, Be polite, Be kind”. I think it has great potential despite some of its disadvantages.

References

Essid, J. (2011). Failure to disrupt: Why Second Life failed. Hypergrid Business. Retrieved January 26, 2012, from http://www.hypergridbusiness.com/2011/02/failure-to-disrupt-why-second-life-failed/

Gollub, R. (n.d.). Second Life and education. Crossroads: The ACM Student Magazine. Retrieved January 26, 2012, from http://paws.wcu.edu/jlebaron/LMSTF/Gollub-2nd.Life.pdf

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009). Disruptive technologies featuring Dr. David Thornburg. United States: Walden University. Podcasts retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6200933&Survey=1&47=4862829&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Rosedale, P. (2008). Philip Rosedale on Second Life [Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/the_inspiration_of_second_life.html

EDUC 8848: Emerging and Future Technology

      
Rhymes of History Technology: Wind Turbines

Man’s need to harness wind power goes back to 1000 B.C. with the development of a “drag” device designed to collect wind in order to provide power to move an object by dragging it. A simple example of this is a sail boat (Dodge, 2006). Utilizing the sail design, in 500 A.D. in Persia the first windmills were designed using a vertical axis to automate the grinding of grains and to pump water (Dodge, 2006). Windmills were found in China and across Europe beginning around 1300 A.D. The Dutch made many modifications and redesigns of the windmill towers and are the images most people today think of when talking about windmills. Windmill technology remained mostly unchanged until America perfected its water pumping system with the Halladay Mill of 1854 (Dodge, 2006). By 1888 the first windmill designed for generating electricity came online in Ohio (Dodge, 2006). Moving along, in the 1920’s, small, personal sized wind turbines were developed for things like lighting for farms, charging batteries, and running house hold appliances that required electricity (Dodge, 2006). Wind turbines continued to go through developments and changes over the next several decades.

The 1980’s kicked-off a real focus on wind power as a source of electricity both in the USA and globally. Today we are seeing wind farms pop up everywhere from the plains, to ridge tops, to floating islands in the ocean. The design, power, and capabilities of these new wind turbines improve each day. Not only are we focused on how to best capture the wind and get the most out of it, but there are turbines designed now to also take into account aesthetics and wildlife. Turbines are being designed now so that birds will be less likely to get injured or die from crashing into the. Here is a news clip about some of these new designs:

New Wind Turbine Design Good for Rural, Urban Environment

The resurgence of wind turbines and wind farms harkens back to the Dutch windmills most of us think of when we discuss wind power. These new wind turbines do what the windmills of thousands of years ago do. They are just more efficient, effective, and depending on your point of view, elegant to look at.

Reference

Dodge, D. (2006). Illustrated history of wind power development. Retrieved from http://telosnet.com/wind/index.html