EDUC 8848: Emerging and Future Technology

Red Queens and Increasing Returns: DVDs versus VOD

When I chose to view the movie “Minority Report” based on Philip K. Dick’s book, I rented the DVD from the local movie rental shop. I did so because I personally don’t have a subscription to any video-on-demand (VOD) so it was cheaper to just rent the DVD. Actually Comcast does have VOD but they did not have “Minority Report” available at the time I needed to view it.

At the moment, I believe the competition between DVDs versus VOD is a form of a Red Queen. VOD has not successfully blown DVDs out of the water. There are still DVD rental stores, RedBox, and the like available to rent DVDs. If VOD was an Increasing Return, it would have obliterated DVDs by now. Instead, the competition between the two continues. There used to be a lag time between when a movie was released on DVD and when it was released on VOD. That time frame has collapsed to just 5 days (Lawler, 2010) making the difference negligible. However, what is not negligible is the cost. A DVD can be rented for as little as $1 per day (for new releases) whereas a VOD subscription can vary in price from $4.99-$5.99 (Lawler, 2010) and online monthly subscription carry a different pricing level. In times of economic hardship, people have less expendable cash and don’t necessarily want to be locked into a commitment of a rental contract or VOD contract. I rented my copy of “Minority Report” for 7 days for a whopping 99 cents. DVDs and VOD have had a back and forth competition for the past few years, leaving behind VHS and other movie rental formats. According to Thornburg (2009b), when two in competition become the leaders and driving forces in the arena, driving all other competition out, we have a Red Queen. I believe this is what we have with DVDs and VOD; neither is winning but they are it.

I believe these Red Queens will not evolve into one becoming an Increasing Returns winner. Instead, I believe they are in McLuhan’s quadrant of “Reverses” in his tetrad. The Red Queens will soon be replaced by Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray has better resolution and higher quality than DVDs or VOD (Brandon, 2011) and more importantly has 3-D capability. As technology becomes more advanced and people’s expectations and desires for better media rise, the likelihood of a “suboptimal technology becoming dominate” (Thornburg, 2009a) is less likely to occur. Is it a guarantee that Blu-Ray will replace VOD? No. With the increase in bandwidth and other improvements to VOD, it is very possible that in the future VOD could rise up and overtake Blu-Ray (Brandon, 2011). Until then, when I am able to carve a little time out to watch a movie, I will just rent my DVD.

References

Brandon, J. (2011). Video format war: Blu-ray vs. streaming. PCWorld. Retrieved February 9, 2012, from http://www.pcworld.com/article/241215/video_format_war_bluray_vs_streaming.html

Curtis, B., Goldman, G., Molen, G., & de Bont, J. (Producers), & Spielberg, S. (Director). (2002). Minority report [Motion picture]. USA: Dreamworks Pictures.

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009a). Increasing returns featuring Dr. David Thornburg. United States: Walden University. Podcasts retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6200933&Survey=1&47=4862829&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Laureate Education, Inc. (Producer). (2009b). Red queens featuring Dr. David Thornburg. United States: Walden University. Podcasts retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=6200933&Survey=1&47=4862829&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1

Lawler, R. (2010), Studios giving up on DVD, Pushing VOD instead. Retrieved February 9, 2012, from http://gigaom.com/video/studios-giving-up-on-dvd-pushing-vod-instead/